Tabla de contenidos para Winter 2026 en Foreign Policy

Now entering its fourth month and with U.S. President Donald Trump exerting enormous pressure to maintain it, the Israel-Hamas cease-fire looks as if it will hold. Tens of thousands of reservists have returned home to their families and jobs, and the sirens warning of incoming missiles have gone silent. Israel’s postwar era can now begin. A postwar accounting of this long and bloody conflict should also logically be getting underway. And with that accounting may come a change in direction, perhaps away from the illiberal policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or, less likely, a new openness toward an accommodation with the Palestinians. The most obvious way for that process to begin would be the formation of a state commission of inquiry into the failures that led to the…

When it comes to international conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump learns everything the hard way. On issue after issue—North Korea, Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine, Gaza, and more—Trump begins by bucking conventional wisdom and insisting that a bold new approach will yield breakthroughs. Implied, and often said outright, is that past officials who worked on the matter were feeble, inept, and craven. Trump insists that his determination and powers of persuasion will force seismic change, cowing enemies, bridging schisms, and achieving diplomatic masterstrokes. Yet time and again, after gambles and gambits, Trump comes to the same conclusion: While he might not admit it, his approach reverts to something much closer to what policy wonks and advisors urged on him at the outset. Trump’s overconfidence and distrust of expertise drive time-consuming, costly, and sometimes…

It is now widely accepted that the story Western countries once told themselves about China’s technological development—that it is a mere imitator of Western technology, it steals intellectual property, and its successes result from wasteful public subsidies—is inadequate. This story still has some elements of truth, but it is much less true than it used to be. China is today an innovator and technological leader in robotics, electric vehicles, nuclear reactors, solar energy, drones, high-speed rail, and artificial intelligence. Last September’s military parade through Beijing confirmed, if confirmation were needed, that we must add military technology to this list. It is no longer enough to say the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is catching up or that it is copying foreign military equipment designs. China is now innovating, and it is…

For years, there has been one guiding through line to U.S. policy regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It wasn’t necessarily about allowing Ukraine to reclaim all of its territory, and it certainly wasn’t about a defeat of Russia outright. Instead, the West’s strategy centered on convincing Russian President Vladimir Putin that his invasion of Ukraine would ultimately fail. If Putin could be convinced that his dreams of reconquering Ukraine would never succeed, then a path to negotiation—to a stable ceasefire and even to potential peace—could be found.. In a vacuum, it’s a sound strategy. As with any geopolitical tussle, there would theoretically come a point when even Putin would throw up his hands at the quagmire and realize he could not succeed. Maybe it would come after a certain number…

When U.S. President Donald Trump decided in 2025 to withdraw, again, from the Paris Agreement on climate change, it was not a surprise to anyone. What’s more surprising is China’s decision to stay in when it has every excuse to walk away. After all, the United States is the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and remains the second-largest emitter today after China. In the alternate history in which China had withdrawn, members of Congress would certainly have called for the United States to do the same. So why does China stay in? And could it step up, even, now that the United States has abdicated global leadership on reducing carbon emissions? THE FIRST REASON CHINA stays in the Paris Agreement is because its leaders take the facts at face…

Traditionally known for its pristine beaches, lush biodiversity, and agricultural exports, Costa Rica has undergone a profound economic transformation. Today, it stands as an unexpected force in the global knowledge economy—a hub for medical devices, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and digital services. This transformation from an agrarian base to a diversified, high-value economy was not accidental but the result of deliberate strategy, combining openness to trade, institutional predictability, and a forwardlooking development model that positioned the country among Latin America’s most attractive destinations for foreign investment. The scale of this shift is remarkable. In the 1980s, exports relied on a handful of agricultural commodities; today, Costa Rica ships more than 4,500 products and services worldwide. Between January and October 2025, goods exports exceeded US$19 billion, marking a 16% year-on-year increase, driven…

With one hundred years of experience, the National Insurance Institute (INS) has established itself as the leading insurance company in Costa Rica and Central America, with assets exceeding US$2.2 billion, a 65% share of the national market, and nearly 40% of the regional market—a true testament to its strength, reliability, and dedication to protecting individuals, families, and businesses, while contributing to the country’s economic and social development. As the insurer of Costa Ricans, the INS has successfully adapted to changes in the industry through intensive use of technology and agility. “In recent years, the insurance experience at INS has undergone a significant transformation. One of our main strategies has been the creation of a robust and secure technological infrastructure that enables the integration of multiple digital services. In addition, we…

Any book that starts with a speech by Archidamus and the Peloponnesian War is catnip to a certain type of reader. And A. Wess Mitchell’s Great Power Diplomacy, though it competes in a crowded field, does exactly what it sets out to do: explain how and why diplomacy has mattered over the last millennium or two—and why it really matters today. There is a grand tradition of books on diplomacy, some of which I dust but seldom. Obviously Henry Kissinger’s Diplomacy is up there. So, too, is Robert Zoellick’s history of U.S. diplomacy. George Herring did a nice two-volume history of U.S. diplomacy that is textbook in its tidiness. Other practitioners, and legends of diplomacy, have also taken up the pen: We have Prince Talleyrand’s belated memoirs (he served four…

Two years on from Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the start of Israel’s seemingly endless retribution campaign against Gaza, several Western nations—including Australia, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom—announced last fall that they would recognize a Palestinian state. As Western governments lined up to recognize Palestine, however, the Israeli military continued its systematic obliteration of Gaza City, block by block, neighborhood by neighborhood, while forcibly displacing its approximately 1 million residents to the south. The recognitions represented mounting global outrage over Israel’s war in Gaza, which had led to a human-made famine, the annihilation of most of the territory’s infrastructure, and what a growing chorus of experts described as genocide. The stark contrast between the world’s declarations about a theoretical Palestinian state and Israel’s physical erasure of…

What is that old saw? Put two Israelis in a room and you get nine opinions on any given issue. This alleged truism, wrapped up in marginally amusing Borscht Belt humor, is intended to convey something both exasperating and heartwarming about Israeli society. It is true that Israel is a polarized country and social trust has deteriorated, but on a variety of issues, from the prosaic to the consequential, Israelis seem to agree on quite a lot these days. Based on the 12 days that took me back and forth between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem last November, and to several points in between, here’s my nonscientific read on Israeli public opinion: Everyone hates the endless road construction in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem; most people believe that the Haredim (or ultra-Orthodox),…

Last October, Argentine President Javier Milei’s far-right political movement achieved a strong showing in the country’s midterm elections. His La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party secured nearly 41 percent of the national vote. Roughly half of the lower house and one-third of the Senate were up for grabs. The LLA gained seats in both chambers, increasing its share of deputies from 37 to 101 and senators from six to 20. The LLA still lacks a congressional majority. But its increased influencewill boost Milei’s libertarian agenda and pro-market reforms, which have involved drastic public spending cuts and sowed division across Argentine society since he took office in 2023. While Milei’s signature austerity measures have succeeded in lowering the country’s runaway inflation, they have also gutted social services, alienating many of the working-…

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a defense pact last September that provides mutual security guarantees. The agreement is likely to have ramifications for South Asia, as it comes at a particularly fraught moment in the region. It follows the short but intense India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025, after a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi says was sponsored by Islamabad. In the wake of the May military skirmish, Indian officials were piqued when U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir at the White House. India also took umbrage at Trump’s claim that he played a pivotal role in defusing the conflict and bringing about a cease-fire. India-Pakistan relations are now at their lowest ebb in decades, and the new pact is likely to cause further…

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the United States has served as the guardian of the global nuclear order by upholding norms against nuclear use, curbing nuclear proliferation, and entering agreements to limit its own arsenal. This order mitigated the dangers posed by nuclear weapons for 80 years. Now, though, its pillars have begun to crack, with the collapse of arms control between the United States and Russia; China’s breakneck nuclear expansion; and the fraying of the nonproliferation regime. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency is accelerating the fragmentation, as allies and partners question the credibility of U.S. security commitments and Washington contemplates whether it will continue to lead on nonproliferation globally. In response, U.S. allies and partners are taking initial steps toward a post-American nuclear order—one that will…

In July 2025, Costa Rica officially launched Banano de Costa Rica, a new brand representing its national banana industry, underpinned by a protected denomination of origin. But the brand is more than a marketing initiative — it encapsulates decades of leadership in sustainable agriculture and Costa Rica’s role as a reliable international trading partner. Costa Rica’s banana industry has long been a trailblazer. It played a key role in building the country’s reputation as a dependable exporter — an identity the sector continues to help the country enhance by aligning productivity with progressive environmental and social policies. “Our approach has been to expand through efficiency, not in land use. For over two decades, we’ve shown it’s possible to grow without deforestation — producing more while protecting the land,” said Marcial…

Last September, days before Durga Puja, the biggest annual carnival for Bengalis, the city of Kolkata experienced a shocking cloudburst. In just a few hours, parts of West Bengal’s capital saw nearly a foot of rainfall, which led to flash floods and the deaths of at least 12 people. Cars and buses floated on arterial roads as residents drained buckets of water from their houses. Homeless people scrambled to find shelter, and the power supply was disrupted for hours. A bizarre video of a snake swimming in a flooded backyard with a fish in its mouth went viral on social media. All these scenes could have come from Megha Majumdar’s prescient new novel, A Guardian and a Thief, set in a near-future apocalyptic Kolkata that is reeling from an acute…

The following is adapted from recent editions of FP’s weekly online news quiz. Test yourself every week at ForeignPolicy.com. 1. What was the chief reason for student-led protests in Indonesia that began in late August? a. Financial perks for lawmakers b. An uptick in police brutality c. Spiking energy prices d. Increases in university tuition 2. China held a military parade on Sept. 3 to commemorate the end of World War II in the Pacific. Which anniversary was observed? a. 60th b. 80th c. 90th d. 100th 3. In mid-September, tens of thousands of Brazilians protested proposed legislation that would have done what? a. Banned certain social media platforms b. Lowered taxes for the ultra-wealthy c. Formalized a trade agreement with Russia d. Made it harder to arrest and prosecute…

Last November, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced that it had accepted a one-sided humanitarian truce after orchestrating a series of horrific onslaughts in El Fasher, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, in late October. The agreement was put forth by the U.S.-led Quad—additionally made up of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Less than 24 hours later, the cease-fire was broken, with drone attacks on a military base and a power station in Khartoum, the capital city controlled by the Sudanese army. The RSF attacks in El Fasher highlighted a new level of depravity in what was already the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. More than 460 people were slaughtered at a maternity hospital. Satellite images revealed bloodied sands visible from space. Tens of thousands…

As the U.S. military escalated its posture around Venezuela in recent months, advocates of regime change revived a dangerous analogy. Many pointed to the United States’ 1989 invasion of Panama and toppling of dictator Manuel Noriega as proof that swift, surgical operations can get the job done. In private conversations, several current and former U.S. officials have nodded toward this parallel. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last October, has appealed to the United States for help in fighting what she calls Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s “war.” When asked about striking Venezuelan territory, U.S. President Donald Trump refused to rule it out, saying, “Well, you’re going to find out.” The comparison between Panama in 1989 and Venezuela today is seductive. It is also…

Last October, China’s military expelled nine top leaders from both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the armed forces, including Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman He Weidong and chief political commissar Miao Hua. In the past few years, successive Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe were purged; before them, former CMC Vice Chairmen Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong fell. Counting the many other officers expelled since President Xi Jinping came to power more than a decade ago, one could almost line up a platoon of purged generals. The ousted leaders came from the very core of China’s defense establishment. Such sweeping purges should have provoked fierce institutional backlash or political shock waves. Yet, despite the flood of coup rumors circulating in overseas Chinese media, the People’s Liberation Army…

The Trump administration’s negotiators have been in top shape recently. Last September and October, they clinched trade deals with four members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam—and finessed the details of the investment pledges that Japan gave to the White House in July. The spirit of all these accords is simple: In return for lower tariffs than those that U.S. President Donald Trump previously imposed or threatened, these economies are accepting a surprising number and scope of Washington’s demands. Trade deals are usually a great antidote to insomnia. The agreements between Washington and Asian economies, however, are different. The fine print shows that these countries made unusual concessions to clinch an accord. The agreements offer clues of how Trump has successfully turned tariff threats…

In his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has led a sustained assault on the foundations of the global order. He has nakedly flouted international law, wrecked the system of global trade with unilateral tariffs on scores of countries, and withdrawn the United States from important multilateral bodies. The United States hasn’t always been an ideal champion of international cooperation. It tended toward isolationism when it was a rising power and unilateralism when it became a superpower. But Trump’s approach to reshaping the world order offers a new and dangerous mix of isolationism and aggrandizement. He is contemptuous of multilateralism and fixated by the raw exercise of power. So are his supporters. This likely means that whatever happens in Washington, Trumpism will outlive a president who turns 80 this year.…

In October 2025, representatives from dozens of countries gathered in Singapore for the annual meeting of the International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI). Founded by the United States in 2021, the global collective is aimed at combating ransomware, an increasingly prevalent type of cyberattack in which hackers lock victims out of their computer systems unless they agree to pay a hefty sum. It has since grown to include 74 member states and organizations. For the first time in five years, the initiative’s annual gathering was not held in Washington, and U.S. representation was noticeably lacking. “Traditionally, we have a huge contingent from the U.S.,” David Koh, the head of Singapore’s Cyber Security Agency, told an audience at a cybersecurity conference in Washington a few weeks later, sitting onstage with his counterparts…

As Costa Rica adapts to the accelerating demands of the global economy, climate challenges, and demographic change, CRUSA Foundation has emerged as a strategic catalyst for inclusive and sustainable transformation. Through a network of public, private, and academic partners, CRUSA bridges local potential with global opportunity. Its 2022–2027 strategic plan, Our Dream Costa Rica, rests on four pillars—human talent, technological innovation, climate action, and entrepreneurial ecosystem development—that together define a forward-looking model for sustainable growth. Human capital development remains at the core of CRUSA’s mission. The foundation is addressing skills gaps in sectors tied to Costa Rica’s growing participation in advanced manufacturing and technology industries. A flagship initiative, FORTE, showcases the country’s capacity for results-based innovation. Implemented with an international partner of the same name, the program trains women from…

In the opening scene of Shih-Ching Tsou’s Left-Handed Girl, 5-year-old I-Jing lifts a kaleidoscope to her eye. The car’s interior, the highway rushing by, and the shimmer of Taipei on the horizon become refracted with her mother and sister in gold, blue, and green. From the outset to its closing scene, the film—which is Taiwan’s submission for the 2026 Academy Awards—invites us to consider what is passed down, warped, and shared across three generations of Taiwanese women. There is Shu-Fen, who has moved her daughters back to Taipei to set up a noodle stand in a bustling night market after a prolonged seeming exile in the countryside. With her is I-Ann, a knife-eyed, defiant 20-something who searches for a sense of worth after missing out on college. Finally, there is…

The fruit’s scent announces its presence long before it comes into view. The aroma snakes down the lorongs, past the coffee houses and xian bing stalls of Kuala Lumpur’s Chinatown, ending at the gloved hand of the local fruit seller, who deftly slices off the barbed shell of a durian. A dozen or so Chinese tourists line up to try the football-sized fruit, presented in cellophane packages or blended into soft-serve ice cream and puff pastries. Durian, a divisive fruit often derided in the West for its potent, onion-like flavor and creamy texture, has long been a popular treat in Southeast Asia. Only in recent years has it emerged as a gastronomic sensation in China, which now consumes more than 1.5 million metric tons of the fruit every year, with…